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Potential Cease-Fire and the New Regional Dynamic
November 20, 2012 | 1603
GMTSummaryThe proliferation of
players in the current Israeli-Hamas cease-fire negotiations highlight the major
shift in the regional strategic environment since the fall of former Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak, calling into question the sustainability of any
potential truce.
Analysis U.S. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton will be in Israel overnight Nov. 20 and rumors are rapidly
spreading of an imminent cease-fire agreement. Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi
has also confidently claimed Nov. 20 that "the war will end today," but
statements out of Israel have been far more reserved. The Times of Israel,
citing Egyptian intelligence officials, reported that Israel has rejected the
cease-fire draft and that there will no news conference announcing a cease-fire
tonight.
The core dilemma remains: If Hamas or any other Palestinian
entity can threaten Israel's major population centers with long-range Fajr-5
rockets, what guarantees can Egypt or another third party make to neutralize
that supply and prevent further shipments? The fact that another Fajr-5 rocket
was fired at Jerusalem on Nov. 20 while thousands of Israeli troops remain
forward-deployed in preparation for a ground invasion adds urgency to this
question.
Stratfor has learned that the Egyptian cease-fire proposal
that Clinton will be studying with the Israelis entails an agreement by the
major Palestinian factions to cease rocket attacks against Israel. In return,
Egypt would send monitors to Gaza to enforce the cease-fire -- though no details
were provided on whether Egypt would secure or remove the remaining rockets from
Gaza and what Egypt would do to prevent replenishments from entering Gaza if the
border is reopened. Israel would discontinue its policy of targeted killings
and, at a later stage, would allow the opening of the Rafah crossing on a
regular basis. Rumors continue to percolate on the terms of the cease-fire
proposal, and the above claims could not be verified, but these terms do fit
with the likely parameters of the negotiation.
The problem is that Israel does not trust
the Muslim Brotherhood-led government to enforce the cease-fire agreement. As a
result, the United States is taking a more active role in the negotiation.
Egyptian diplomatic sources are claiming that the Palestinian Fajr-5 rocket
arsenal is dwindling, but will the United States play a role in verifying the
Egyptian figures and removing the rockets from Gaza? What role, if any, will the
United States play in monitoring the Sinai-Gaza border for future weapons
shipments? That much remains unclear. The role of Egyptian intelligence and
military figures from the Mubarak era is critical in these negotiations. Though
the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has been in the diplomatic spotlight, there are
indications that Egyptian intelligence chief Mohamed Raafat Shehata has been
heavily involved in the negotiations with Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and
Israel behind the scenes. Shehata is reportedly delivering a news conference
this evening, at which point a truce may be announced.
There is also
another layer of complexity to factor in. Hamas is not the sole representative
of the Palestinians in Cairo. Egyptian mediators have been negotiating with
Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The latter, which has much closer links
to Iran (which likely has an interest in prolonging the conflict), has claimed
responsibility for firing several Fajr-5 rockets and is allegedly part of a
joint military command with Hamas that is controlling the long-range rocket
attacks.
Stratfor sources in Egypt, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad
have separately claimed that Palestinian Islamic Jihad is in control of at least
some of the Iranian-made Fajr-5 rockets and launchers. If this is true, and
Palestinian Islamic Jihad is not simply serving as a convenient front for Hamas,
then Hamas' commitment to a cease-fire must involve Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
To this end, Palestinian Islamic Jihad chief Ramadan Abdullah Mohammed Shallah
has been in Cairo for negotiations over a cease-fire and has been dealing with
both Hamas and Egypt. An Egyptian source claims that Morsi has held frequent
meetings with Shallah in trying to obtain guarantees on a cessation of rocket
attacks. For now, it appears those talks are bearing fruit and Hamas and
Palestinian Islamic Jihad are on the same page in moving toward a cease-fire.
The questions now are whether Israel feels a ground operation is still necessary
and whether it has exhausted the diplomatic negotiations to move ahead.
Gone are the days when
Egyptian intelligence could mediate a truce between Israel and Hamas alone. The
shifting dynamics over the past year -- from the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood
in Egypt to Hamas' decision to publicly distance itself from Iran and position
itself in the Muslim Brotherhood orbit while receiving Iranian weapons
transfers, to Iran's attempts to maintain leverage in the Levant through groups
such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad -- seem to be greatly complicating an
already trying negotiation effort.
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